Men's underwear purchases examined: ; Lackluster sales may have hit bottom, hailing end to economic recession

WASHINGTON - For one answer to the nation's most pressingeconomic question - when will the recession end? - just take a peekinside the American man's underwear drawer.

There may be some new pairs there, judging by recent reports fromretailers and analysts, and that could mean better days ahead foreveryone.

Here's the theory, briefly: Sales of men's underwear typicallyare stable because they rank as a necessity. But during times ofsevere financial strain, men will try to stretch the time betweenbuying new pairs, causing underwear sales to dip.

"It's a prolonged purchase," said Marshal Cohen, senior analystwith the consumer research firm NPD Group. "It's like trying todrive your car an extra 10,000 miles."

The growth in sales of men's underwear began to slow last year asthe recession took hold, according to Mintel, another research firm.This year, Mintel expects sales to fall 2.3 percent, the first dropsince the company started collecting data in 2003.

But the men's underwear index may also have a silver lining.Mintel predicts that next year, men's underwear sales will fall by0.5 percent, and as with many economic indicators, a slowing of adecline can be welcomed as a step in the right direction. Retailersare reporting encouraging signs in the men's underwear department.Sears spokeswoman Amy Dimond said stores are beginning to see moresales. At Target, spokeswoman Jana O'Leary said sales of men'sunderwear have been stronger over the past two months and multi-pair packs are moving.

No less an oracle than former Federal Reserve Chairman AlanGreenspan has given this theory credence, as described in a reporton NPR two years ago. But you don't have to take his word for it.Just ask Kenneth Sanford, 59, of Capitol Heights, Md., about hisunderwear. He said he usually buys new boxers every three months orso in maroon, black or white. But he's having a hard time finding anew job, and he hasn't bought a new pair of underwear in at leasteight months.

"It's been a while now," Sanford said. "I just don't ever goshopping."

Of course, there are more conventional indicators of the nation'seconomic health. The gross domestic product fell 1 percent duringthe second quarter. Consumer spending and confidence has been on aroller coaster this year. Home sales show some signs of bottomingout. But sometimes, it is the little things that can be the mosttelling.

Leonard Lauder, chairman of the cosmetics company Estee Lauder,famously looked to lipstick sales as a barometer of consumers' mind-set during the last downturn. He believed that women were lookingfor small indulgences to lift their spirits during a tough economictime, though that theory has not held up in this recession, as salesof lipstick at mass retailers fell 8 percent over the past year,according to the research firm Information Resources.

Others look to a reported rise in prescriptions of anti-depressants and sleep aids last year as a sign of consumers' fragilestate.

But perhaps no other purchase is as intimate as underwear. Few,if any, other people see it, so it's an easy place to skimp.According to Mintel, men buy an average of 3.4 pairs of underwear ina year. But from 2004 to 2008, the proportion of men buying singlepairs at a time increased from 5 percent to 8 percent, while theshare of men opting for packs of four or more fell slightly, to 66percent - indicating that shoppers may be trying to save money bybuying only when necessary.

Cohen, of NPD, said he hoped the recent positive signs in men'sunderwear will spill over into other need-based purchases. With therecession nearing two years, shoppers are at the stage where theirstuff is simply beginning to wear out, providing an incentive toreturn to the stores.

"The consumer may be down, but they're not out," said Cohen, whois bullish on an economic recovery. "If this were a true, deep,long, embedded recession, they wouldn't even be buying underwear."